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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."